The most important research paper in the literature on real business cycles is probably "Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement" by Ed Prescott (requires the Adobe Acrobat Reader).

Satyajit Chatterjee discusses the historical development of business-cycle theory leading up to the RBC model, in his article "From Cycles to Shocks: Progress in Business-Cycle Theory" (requires the Adobe Acrobat Reader).

Expectations Data
The Philadelphia Fed provides two useful data sets of expectations about macroeconomic variables. The Livingston Survey has been around since 1946 and has semiannual forecasts. The Survey of Professional Forecasters is younger (it began in 1968), but contains detailed quarterly forecasts, including a recession probability variable and other useful data. See Dean Croushore's article "Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?" for an evaluation of how good the Livingston Survey and Survey of Professional Forecasters have been at forecasting inflation.

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